By rejecting Trump’s offer, Putin has galvanized Europe and laid bare Russia’s battlefield and financial weaknesses
I don’t think Vladimir Putin has read Donald Trump’s Art of the Deal. If he had, he might have realized that Trump offered him and Volodymyr Zelensky the best deal they were likely to get to end their brutal war. Trump proposed a ceasefire that implied Putin could keep the Ukrainian territory his army had captured, creating space for serious negotiations.
Zelensky understood and agreed. But Putin hasn’t. Instead, he’s been stalling, and Trump appears to have run out of patience. On May 26, following a massive Russian aerial assault on Ukrainian cities, Trump posted bluntly on his Truth Social account: “Putin has gone crazy.”
Russian-born commentator Konstantin Kisin argues Putin isn’t crazy: he’s just a typical Russian dictator. Russian history hasn’t been kind to leaders perceived as weak. Putin knows this. His inability to secure victory after 39 months against a smaller opponent makes him look weak, and he knows it.
Still, now that Putin has spurned Trump’s offer, there’s no guarantee it’s still on the table. And things aren’t going his way.
On June 1, Ukraine launched its “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on Russian airbases in Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Belaya, Dyagilevo and Ukrainka. Using about 117 FPV drones hidden in truck crates, they destroyed or damaged dozens of strategic bombers, including some nuclear-capable aircraft, inflicting billions of dollars in damage and showing Ukraine’s growing military sophistication.
The creativity behind the attack was as striking as the damage it caused. False truck roofs concealed dozens of small drones, which were remotely activated once the trucks reached their targets. Videos circulating online show stunned Russian onlookers watching as the drones lifted off in waves. Reports suggest the truck drivers themselves may not have known what they were transporting. If true, it’s the kind of ingenuity that marks a turning point in how wars are fought.
Then, on June 3, Ukraine hit the Kerch Bridge, linking Russia to Crimea, using underwater explosives in a carefully planned operation that damaged its supports and Putin’s image. Meanwhile, 82 U.S. senators support sanctions targeting Russia’s oil trade, and Germany’s new chancellor has pledged more military support.
These latest Ukrainian attacks signalled that Ukraine isn’t backing down. As ceasefire talks resume in Istanbul, Russia no longer looks invincible.
During their televised Oval Office meeting on Feb. 28, Trump said, “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.” He was wrong. While Putin fights a First World War-style conflict, hurling under-equipped troops into battle, Ukraine is rewriting modern warfare. Putin’s generals look increasingly lost.
Still, Trump was right to push both sides to the table. His strategy was clear: end a war he insists would never have started under his leadership. The 30-day ceasefire he proposed was reasonable. While he may have been willing to let Putin save face, he wasn’t about to let him dominate Ukraine or make him look weak.
Yet Putin appears to be trying just that. Russia is reportedly preparing a major summer offensive, possibly massing 50,000 troops. He may be stalling Trump while escalating the war.
How this war ends is unclear. Maybe Putin gets his victory. More likely, he’ll regret not taking Trump’s offer when he had the chance. As the song goes: “You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.”
Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 expecting a quick win. Instead, he’s slogged through massive casualties and left many Ukrainian cities in ruins. He may believe more territory is key to his survival. But Ukraine won’t surrender.
Trump, too, seems done waiting.
This war has revealed that Russia isn’t the superpower many feared. Yet it remains dangerous. If it wins, Lithuania, Poland and others face threats.
More likely, a stalemate will set in. A line will be drawn—like the Korean Demilitarized Zone—and most of Ukraine will turn permanently westward. Ukrainians will loathe everything Russian.
Putin started this war to halt NATO’s eastern expansion. But it had the opposite effect. Sweden and Finland, long neutral, have now joined the alliance. Europe is rearming. NATO is stronger than ever.
Putin wanted to take control of Ukraine and weaken NATO. Instead, he’s united Europe, expanded NATO and reshaped Russia into the very regime he claimed to oppose. He spoke of “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, yet now rules through repression, censorship and war, mirroring the authoritarianism he claimed to fight.
If only he had read The Art of the Deal, he might have known when to walk away.
Brian Giesbrecht is a retired judge and senior fellow at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
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